Forecast for DIS

Forecast Chart

Model Metrics

Forecast Accuracy

• MAPE: 0.016429418438252248

Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)

MAPE is a measure of prediction accuracy, expressed as a percentage difference between actual and forecasted values. Lower MAPE indicates better forecast accuracy.

- Current MAPE: 0.0164 (1.64%) - Excellent Accuracy: MAPE < 10%

Typical MAPE Ranges for Forecasting Models:

• MAPE < 10%: Excellent
• 10% ≤ MAPE ≤ 20%: Good
• 20% ≤ MAPE ≤ 50%: Acceptable
• MAPE > 50%: Poor

Quantile Forecast Scenarios

The following scenarios provide a range of possible stock price forecasts using quantiles:

Key Quantile Levels

Quantile levels provide a probabilistic view of stock forecasts. They help identify downside risks, central predictions, and upside opportunities:

• 5th Percentile (0.05): Represents the bearish extreme (worst-case scenario).
• 25th Percentile (0.25): Indicates mild downside risk.
• 50th Percentile (0.50): Represents the baseline forecast (most likely outcome).
• 75th Percentile (0.75): Indicates mild upside potential.
• 95th Percentile (0.95): Represents the bullish extreme (best-case scenario).

Using quantile levels helps balance risk and reward, providing a clear understanding of forecast uncertainty for better decision-making.